May 06, 2020
There are serious row among Saudi Arabia’s allies in the military coalition against Yemen: the UAE is calling for the partition of the impoverished country while Riyadh is doing what it can to bring the Hadi regime back to power.
The Southern Transitional Government Coalition has ruled that Hadi’s activities are illegal, and has ignored Riyadh’s agreement. On the other hand, the Emirati movement to target Mansour Hadi’s forces and other pro-Saudi mercenaries has increased, and Riyadh has intensified its support for Mansour Hadi in response to these actions.
The UAE’s goal by these activities is based on two parts. The first part is the partition of Yemen and gaining more benefits for Abu Dhabi from a six-year war. The second part is to end the war, because its continuation can be dangerous for Abu Dhabi’s economic potential and can hurt it.
On the other hand, with the end of the Yemeni war, the UAE will prove to Washington that UAE has the potential to replace Saudi Arabia in managing regional affairs, and the issue of the region’s gendarmerie, about which White House has been delaying to take a decision for several years, will be decided.
In fact, with the end of the Yemeni case, it is the UAE that has replaced Saudi Arabia in the region and can manage many political developments. In other words, the Yemeni actor’s armies look at Riyadh and Abu Dhabi and they lack any kind of political decision making and social activism.
They easily present high-quality lands and important and strategic islands to them in a golden plate without their will, and they also deal forcibly with the opposition political groups of Sanaa. This has led to the opposition groups to neglect the Arab and honorable spirit of the Yemeni people and has drastically reduced their base among the people.
On the other hand, the Yemeni opposition front against Sanaa lacks a social base. Their cooperation with the aggressors who targeted women, children, and civilians in celebrations of happiness and mourning, and this has led many Yemeni citizens to do not accept them in any government.
In fact, the future governments, both those who want to establish the government of Mansour Hadi and those who follow the disintegration of Yemen, know that they lack legitimacy and social acceptance, and their hands are stained with the blood of the oppressed Yemeni people. An issue that will not be erased from the Yemeni historical memory any time soon, and if anything happens in favor of the aggressors’ coalition, we will see a far more popular and heated revolution than in 2011. Yemeni opposition groups are well aware of how difficult this lack of social identity will be for them and what problems it will pose to them in the near future.
On the other hand, the military achievements of the Yemeni army and popular committees show that the Yemeni case is changing faster in favor of Sana’a. The general dissatisfaction of Yemeni citizens with the deployment of foreign coalition forces has accelerated the pre-emptive strike and the rapid advance of Ansarullah forces in al-Jawf and Marib, and it seems that in the coming days we will see significant developments in the eastern regions and Saudi military bases.
The attack by Ansarullah forces to clear the occupied territories in eastern Yemen is due to social and popular support, and from this perspective, Sanaa’s hand has opened for further operations. This is something that we have seen before in the southern regions of Saudi Arabia, and the people of the southern regions, after the establishment of Ansarullah, in full cooperation with them, became the will of the resistance forces to attack sensitive oil centers, including Aramco.
Earlier, the people’s cooperation with the social movements based in Sanaa was in a position where the resistance forces, whenever they wished for a security and intelligence operation, would achieve the best results with the cooperation of the people. An example of this is the tracking and arrest of Ali Abdullah Saleh in the crisis that was going to put a lot of pressure on Sanaa and the resistance could had to face another difficulty in its path.
Everything that the anti-resistance Arab currents have pursued in Yemen over the past few years through the UAE and Saudi media to dismantle the social bases, has fallen on their own heads, and now the Sanaa opposition groups are fighting each other to survive and attract the social bases.
Mansour Hadi’s internal conflict with the so-called Southern Transitional Council is so ridiculous that the two groups think they can achieve stability and power in the region with the plan in front of them, regardless of the fact that their crimes over the past five years have provoked public outrage, and it is enough that the Saudis and the Emirati people to withdraw their military and paramilitary groups from these areas, then we will see a social revolution in these areas.