Turkey in deadlock

Turkey in deadlock

Oct 15, 2019

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Later, with the failure of the Turkish plan in Aleppo and, consequently, the political turnaround in Idlib and the joining of other terrorist forces with Turkey, Erdogan practically represented the opposition terrorist groups in Syria, which continued their actions under the auspices of Turkey, making some analysts to believe that the Syrian case has been transferred from Riyadh to Ankara.

Turkey is entering Syria under the pretext of fighting the Kurds, although well knowing that the goal is to offset the costs beard the last five years when serving the terrorist groups on the Syrian soil. So, in addition to Erdogan’s security and political costs in Syria, experts believe that Turks have incurred significant costs to support and provide logistical aid to terrorists in Syria. Perhaps the first heavy expense by Turks can be attributed to Aleppo and its defensive operations, where they spent to make Aleppo the capital-in-exile of a transitional state formally recognized by various countries.

Later, with the failure of the Turkish plan in Aleppo and, consequently, the political turnaround in Idlib and the joining of other terrorist forces with Turkey, Erdogan practically represented the opposition terrorist groups in Syria, which continued their actions under the auspices of Turkey, making some analysts to believe that the Syrian case has been transferred from Riyadh to Ankara.

With the field victories of the Syrian army and resistance forces, Erdogan made a new decision landing there to carry out a no-fly zone project in northern Syria 5km strip, so that Turkey is currently operating in the north, and Ankara claims to have reached its predetermined targets within days of the operation. At the moment, governments internationally are concerned about killing civilians and occupying another country’s territory without a Security Council authorization. But let’s see what Turkey’s purpose is and what challenges it is facing on its way!

Turkey’s primary ambition is to transit a terrorist force on its territory into northern Syria having dozens of strategic advantages for the Turks who can also use them to fight Syria and achieve concessions, but the main problem is that the terrorist forces have no social base making it difficult to do so. With the presence of these forces, Turkey knows that the Syrian army will certainly reach the north and get enough legitimacy to confront them.

On the other hand, the Kurds did not abide by the American betrayal, and as the situation in northern Syria worsens, the Kurdish militias would extend their hand to the Syrian army meaning that Syria can take over all its borders and conquer a war ignited by the US and all of its regional allies, establishing internal deterrence forever.

Another issue ignored by Turkey is the Syrian army’s motivation and ability to respond. Although the Turks think the Syrian army is weak, it is politically, in terms of faith, and even military structure in a strong positon, so it has a great motivation to take revenge from Turkey on many of the damages suffered in recent years. The Syrian army’s combat structure is well-prepared for a classic war, and Turkey knows it well.

On the one hand, contrary to Turkey’s expectation, the EU countries opposed the operation and it appears that this disagreement could increase pressure on Turkey. Europeans know that more than Turkey’s media victory in Syria, the operation serves as a tool for Ankara to increase pressure on Europe. There is even reports that the attack has drawn widespread criticism from US officials, claiming, within two first days of the war, it would be a very catastrophic development.

Turkey seems to have entered a swamp, the result being nothing more than the destruction of its army in northern Syria, increasing terrorist attacks inside its territory, and the Kurdish alliance with Damascus, something the Americans quickly understood. They found that the Kurds were approaching Syria, contrary to expectations, putting the US officials in great trouble, and the ground link between Tehran and Beirut being easily expanded.

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